Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
